Impact of COVID-19's supply and demand shocks on the household economy of tilapia smallholder farmer

PurposeThis study aims to verify the impact of the supply shock (fall in harvested output) and demand shock (fall in household income) due to the pandemic on the consumption of necessities and household savings of tilapia's smallholder farmer.Design/methodology/approachThe researchers randomly chose 144 households as research samples using the proportional random sampling technique in Padang Jaya District, North Bengkulu Regency. Researchers collected data on household income, farm losses, household consumption for basic needs, labor demand, use of production inputs, the amount of output sold and saving both during and before the pandemic. The data were collected from the sample using a questionnaire prepared by the researchers. This study used a simultaneous equations system for arranging tilapia's smallholder farmer household economic model.FindingsThis study verified that the demand shock phenomenon makes households more severe than the supply shock phenomenon. The demand shock phenomenon made worse-off tilapia smallholder farmers because it caused their household savings to drop during the pandemic. The fall in savings will disrupt the stability of consumption of household necessities (health, food, education and clothing) in the future.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this study was providing empirical evidence about the impact of the demand and supply shock of COVID-19 on the most vulnerable entities in the Indonesian freshwater aquaculture industry, namely, smallholder farmer households of freshwater aquaculture fish.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2022-0554.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the World Energy and Food Commodity Prices: Implications for Global Economic Growth

The negative socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are widely discussed. However, relatively less attention is paid to its impact on the world commodity price formation including energy and food prices. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on world energy commodity prices and their interactions with world food commodity prices. Using the World Bank data on commodity prices we look for evidence of changes in energy and food prices caused by occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was assumed to be a negative shock to the global economy in terms of both supply and demand. Based on data series analysis of indices of world energy and food commodity prices, it is evident that after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic the energy prices, especially oil prices, plummeted. Food prices followed the same direction;however, their plunge was much less extreme. In general, it can be concluded that the pandemic caused a severe energy price shock which clearly had a negative impact on global economic growth, but the scale of this impact differs depending on the type of economic sector and countries' net export positions in energy and food trade. © 2023 by the authors.

Teaching the COVID-19 lockdown using the Keynesian Cross

I present a framework to teach the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 using the Keynesian Cross. I show that the rest of the economy suffers from a decline in demand once one sector of the economy is shut down and that the government spending and tax multipliers are smaller than usual. Fully insuring workers in the sector that is shut down cannot prevent a recession, but for the same aggregate transfers, such targeted income transfers do more to restore aggregate output than unconditional transfers. An extension to the (Formula presented.) curve shows that a lockdown results in deflation. These insights can be taught in an introductory or intermediate macroeconomics course. © 2022 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Impact of COVID-19's supply and demand shocks on the household economy of tilapia smallholder farmer

Purpose: This study aims to verify the impact of the supply shock (fall in harvested output) and demand shock (fall in household income) due to the pandemic on the consumption of necessities and household savings of tilapia's smallholder farmer. Design/methodology/approach: The researchers randomly chose 144 households as research samples using the proportional random sampling technique in Padang Jaya District, North Bengkulu Regency. Researchers collected data on household income, farm losses, household consumption for basic needs, labor demand, use of production inputs, the amount of output sold and saving both during and before the pandemic. The data were collected from the sample using a questionnaire prepared by the researchers. This study used a simultaneous equations system for arranging tilapia's smallholder farmer household economic model. Findings: This study verified that the demand shock phenomenon makes households more severe than the supply shock phenomenon. The demand shock phenomenon made worse-off tilapia smallholder farmers because it caused their household savings to drop during the pandemic. The fall in savings will disrupt the stability of consumption of household necessities (health, food, education and clothing) in the future. Originality/value: The main contribution of this study was providing empirical evidence about the impact of the demand and supply shock of COVID-19 on the most vulnerable entities in the Indonesian freshwater aquaculture industry, namely, smallholder farmer households of freshwater aquaculture fish. Peer review: The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2022-0554. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

COVID-19 Crisis and Supply Side Bottlenecks in the EU. Shorter and Longer Term Prospects

The COVID-19 shock affected the global economy mainly through the col-lapse of demand, labour supply and industrial output, supply chains, commodity prices, international trade and capital flows. From the second half of 2020, various bottlenecks (logistical disruptions;shortages of raw materials and parts) in the EU economy have had a growing impact on growth. Following the recurrent pandemic shocks, the war shock has caused further severe supply-side disruptions from February 2022 onwards, in particular in raw materials markets (including energy sources and agricultural raw materials) and international logistics. Supply shortages in the EU have not only a one-off but also a ripple effect throughout the economy. Spill-over effects across Member States are of great importance. Together, the shortages of production inputs can have a significant negative impact on output and the recovery of the economy. At the same time, supply-side shocks can have a significant impact on the restructuring of supply chains, the deepening of green and digital transformation, and productivity growth. © 2022, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research. All rights reserved.

Measuring Demand and Supply Shocks From COVID-19: An Industry-Level Analysis for India

The present article attempts to decompose the COVID-19-induced shock to output and inflation of the Indian economy at the aggregate and disaggregate levels into demand and supply shocks for the period March 2020 to June 2020, using a structural Bayesian VAR model following Baumeister and Hamilton (2015, 2019). The results of the empirical analysis reveal that while the negative supply shocks dominate at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, their magnitude varies across industries. Demand shocks to output were positive in some industries like the manufacture of food products (10), textiles (13), chemicals and chemical products (20), and electrical equipment (27), but were outweighed by the negative supply shocks. In response to the COVID-19 shock the government announced the three pronged Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (ABA), which is a blend of demand management, supply management and structural policies. It not only promises to address the short-term distress caused to the industries due to the COVID-19 shock but also attempts to make them self-reliant and resilient to such shocks in future. JEL Classification: E10, C32, C40, E30 © 2022 National Council of Applied Economic Research.

The Hubei lockdown and its global impacts via supply chains

This article argues that the lockdown of Hubei province in China due to the Coronavirus outbreak provides a natural experiment to study the importance of China's role in global value chains. Since the lockdown started during the Lunar New Year, Hubei's migrant workers who went home could not return to workplaces in other provinces, resulting in a massive labor supply shock. I feed the supply shock through a Ricardian model with intermediate goods and sectoral linkages to study trade and welfare effects across several economies. While welfare in China is the most negatively affected, the shock also has sizeable negative implications for the US and the UK. © 2022 The Author. Review of International Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations.

We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or severe disruptions to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruptions, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively impacted by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their one-year-ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms' one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms' near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations have remained relatively stable.